In 2019, Alex Bregman was an offensive powerhouse. The Houston Astros third baseman mirrored Mike Trout’s level of performance that year, blasting 41 home runs, boasting a .423 on-base percentage, and drawing an impressive 121 walks while striking out only 83 times. In the American League, only Trout himself surpassed Bregman’s wRC+, a testament to his exceptional offensive capabilities.
Fast forward to the present, and the now 28-year-old Bregman is navigating the seasons after that peak year, striving to recapture his dominant form. While he remains a productive hitter and a challenging out for pitchers – evidenced by a 132 wRC+, 6 home runs, and a favorable walk-to-strikeout ratio of 26 walks to 25 strikeouts this season – his .229/.349/.424 slash line through 42 games is perceived by some as less than stellar compared to his previous heights.
Injuries have undoubtedly hindered Bregman’s pursuit of replicating his 2019 numbers. However, in 2022, a season where he appears to be healthy, a different factor looms large: the baseball itself.
Major League Baseball has altered the baseball, essentially “deadening” it, and the consequences are becoming evident. Fewer fly balls are reaching the stands for home runs; instead, many are falling short at the warning track. This trend is reflected in league-wide batted-ball data, particularly in the realm of “Barrels.”
The Barrel Effect
| Year | wOBA | xwOBA | wOBA – xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1.408 | 1.401 | .007 |
| 2020 | 1.391 | 1.376 | .015 |
| 2021 | 1.342 | 1.337 | .005 |
| 2022 | 1.224 | 1.429 | -.205 |
via Baseball Savant
Barrels are the gold standard of contact for hitters, frequently resulting in extra-base hits and home runs. However, the altered baseball in 2022 has demonstrably impacted their effectiveness, as shown in the data above.
This change in ball dynamics is particularly pertinent to understanding Alex Bregman’s current offensive output. Looking back, it’s reasonable to suggest that the “juiced” baseballs in 2019 significantly contributed to his power surge. In that year, the home run-to-barrel ratio reached 59.4 percent, the second-highest in the Statcast era (since 2015). The landscape has since shifted:
Home Runs and Barrels: A Changing Ratio
| Year | HR to Brl % | Non-barrel HR % |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 59.4 | 19.2 |
| 2020 | 56.1 | 18.3 |
| 2021 | 52.4 | 15.1 |
| 2022 | 43.3 | 12.6 |
via Baseball Savant
Barrels, and by extension fly balls, now yield less value. This development directly affects a player like Bregman. Notably, in his stellar 2019 season, 22 of his 41 home runs were classified as non-barreled, the highest such number in the major leagues that year.
According to Baseball Savant data from his first 175 plate appearances in 2022, Bregman’s Barrel rate is 8.2 percent, potentially his highest in a single season. While this might seem positive initially, the context of the deadened ball suggests the benefits may be limited.
In simpler terms, hitting numerous fly balls in the current MLB environment isn’t as rewarding unless accompanied by a high-quality Barrel rate. Bregman’s Barrel rate, while above average, is only slightly so (league average is 7.8 percent).
It appears Bregman is consciously attempting to elevate the ball more, possibly to correct for his career-high ground ball rate from the previous year. He is also pulling the ball at a career-high rate. However, this increased emphasis on fly balls might be an overcorrection in the context of the changed baseball. While such an approach might have been effective in previous seasons, it’s less so now given the ball’s altered characteristics.
One consequence of Bregman’s increased swing loft and reduced ground ball rate has been a decline in line drives. His current line-drive rate is projected to be the lowest of his career. This likely negatively impacts his Sweet Spot percentage, which is also at a career low.
In essence, rediscovering his ability to hit line drives could be key to unlocking a higher level of offensive production for Bregman:
Bregman’s Batted Ball Breakdown in 2022
| Batted-ball type | Rate (%) | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fly ball | 36.4 | .336 | .323 |
| Line drive | 22 | .707 | .712 |
| Ground ball | 30.5 | .159 | .227 |
via Baseball Savant
Returning to his line-drive oriented approach might be the adjustment that propels Bregman back to the offensive heights he has, by his own high standards, failed to reach in recent seasons.
It’s important to maintain perspective: even with the changes and adjustments, a 132 wRC+ signifies a very good offensive player. Bregman’s current performance trajectory suggests he is on pace to surpass his outputs from 2021 and 2020. However, it’s no secret that Bregman aspires to be an MVP-caliber player once again.
To achieve that elite level, a swing refinement, perhaps a recalibration towards line drives, might be essential. The fly-ball focused approaches that were highly productive in the past are simply not yielding the same returns in the current MLB environment.
